A scoring system to predict recurrence in breast cancer patients
Por:
Paredes-Aracil E, Palazon A, Folgado-de la Rosa DM, Ots-Gutiérrez JR, Llorca-Ferrándiz C, Alonso-Hernández S, Coloma-Lidón JV and Gil V
Publicada:
1 dic 2018
Ahead of Print:
18 sep 2018
Resumen:
Objective: Current breast cancer recurrence prediction models have limitations for clinical practice (statistical methodology, simplicity and specific populations). We therefore developed a new model that overcomes these limitations.
Methods: This cohort study comprised 272 patients with breast cancer followed between 2003 and 2016. The main variable was time-to-recurrence (locoregional and/or metastasis) and secondary variables were its risk factors: age, postmenopause, grade, oestrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, c-erbB2 status, stage, multicentricity, diagnosis and treatment. A Cox model to predict recurrence was estimated with the secondary variables, and this was adapted to a points system to predict risk at 5 and 10 years from diagnosis. The model was validated internally by bootstrapping, calculating the C statistic and smooth calibration (splines). The system was integrated into a mobile application for Android.
Results: Of the 272 patients with breast cancer, 47 (17.3%) developed recurrence in a mean time of 8.6 +/- 3.5 years. The system variables were: age, grade, multicentricity and stage. Validation by bootstrapping showed good discrimination and calibration.
Conclusions: A points system has been developed to predict breast cancer recurrence at 5 and 10 years.
Filiaciones:
:
General Surgery Service, General University Hospital of Elda, Ctra Sax-La Torreta S/N, Elda, 03600, Alicante, Spain
Palazon A:
Department of Clinical Medicine, Miguel Hernández University, Ctra Valencia-Alicante S/N, San Juan de Alicante, Alicante, 03550, Spain
:
Department of Clinical Medicine, Miguel Hernández University, Ctra Valencia-Alicante S/N, San Juan de Alicante, Alicante, 03550, Spain
:
General Surgery Service, Marina Baixa Hospital, Avda Alcalde En Jaume Botella Mayor 7, Villajoyosa, 03570, Alicante, Spain
:
Oncology Service, General University Hospital of Elda, Ctra Sax-La Torreta S/N, Elda, Alicante, 03600, Spain
:
Pathological Anatomy Service, General University Hospital of Elda, Ctra Sax-La Torreta S/N, Elda, Alicante, 03600, Spain
:
General Surgery Service, General University Hospital of Elda, Ctra Sax-La Torreta S/N, Elda, 03600, Alicante, Spain
Gil V:
Department of Clinical Medicine, Miguel Hernández University, Ctra Valencia-Alicante S/N, San Juan de Alicante, Alicante, 03550, Spain
HOSP. GRAL. UNIV. ELDA - CIRUGÍA GENERAL
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