Bayesian Immature Survival Analysis of the Largest Colony of Common Murre (Uria aalge) in the Baltic Sea
Por:
Sarzo, B, Armero, C, Conesa, D, Hentati-Sundberg, J and Olsson, O
Publicada:
1 sep 2019
Categoría:
Animal science and zoology
Resumen:
In long-lived species, such as seabirds, immature survival is the most important life history parameter after adult survival. The assessment of immature survival has often been difficult due to extended periods in which young birds remain unobservable at sea. This study presents results on survival of immature Common Murre (Uria aalge) obtained from an extensive mark-recapture study of a large colony at Stora Karlso in the Baltic Sea, Sweden. This colony, in contrast with other colonies, has the unique feature that many 1-year-old birds return to the colony (12%). Between 2006 and 2016, 28,930 chicks were marked at fledging, of which 5,493 individuals were later resighted in the colony. Annual survival and recapture probabilities were estimated using Bayesian Cormack-Jolly-Seber models with four age classes for survival probability, and recapture probability being age and time dependent. Informative prior distributions were used to correct partial observability problems in older age classes (observed at breeding ledges). The estimated survival probability of 1-year-old birds was 0.53 (95% CI = 0.49-0.58), 2-year-old birds was 0.87 (0.79-0.96), 3-year-old birds was 0.96 (0.90-0.99), and 4-to-10-year old bird survival probability was 0.63 (0.61-0.64). Survival estimates for younger age classes were consistent with previous studies. Several biological factors may contribute to the observed decline in survival for older age classes.
Filiaciones:
:
Univ Valencia, Dept Stat & Operat Res, Doctor Moliner 50, E-46100 Valencia, Spain
Armero, C:
Univ Valencia, Dept Stat & Operat Res, Doctor Moliner 50, E-46100 Valencia, Spain
Conesa, D:
Univ Valencia, Dept Stat & Operat Res, Doctor Moliner 50, E-46100 Valencia, Spain
Hentati-Sundberg, J:
Swedish Univ Agr Sciencies, Inst Marine Res Swedish, Dept Aquat Resources, Turistgatan 5, SE-45330 Lysekil, Sweden
Olsson, O:
Stockholm Univ, Stockholm Resilience Ctr, Kraftriket 2B, SE-10691 Stockholm, Sweden
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