A Multivariate Age-Structured Stochastic Model with Immunization Strategies to Describe Bronchiolitis Dynamics
Por:
López-Lacort M, Corberán-Vallet A and Santonja Gómez FJ
Publicada:
1 jul 2021
Ahead of Print:
17 jul 2021
Resumen:
Bronchiolitis has a high morbidity in children under 2 years old. Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most common pathogen causing the disease. At present, there is only a costly humanized monoclonal RSV-specific antibody to prevent RSV. However, different immunization strategies are being developed. Hence, evaluation and comparison of their impact is important for policymakers. The analysis of the disease with a Bayesian stochastic compartmental model provided an improved and more natural description of its dynamics. However, the consideration of different age groups is still needed, since disease transmission greatly varies with age. In this work, we propose a multivariate age-structured stochastic model to understand bronchiolitis dynamics in children younger than 2 years of age considering high-quality data from the Valencia health system integrated database. Our modeling approach combines ideas from compartmental models and Bayesian hierarchical Poisson models in a novel way. Finally, we develop an extension of the model that simulates the effect of potential newborn immunization scenarios on the burden of disease. We provide an app tool that estimates the expected reduction in bronchiolitis episodes for a range of different values of uptake and effectiveness.
Filiaciones:
:
Vaccine Research Department, Fisabio-Public Health, Avda. Cataluña 21, 46020 Valencia, Spain
Corberán-Vallet A:
Department of Statistics and Operations Research, Universitat de València, Dr. Moliner 50, 46100 Burjassot, Spain
Santonja Gómez FJ:
Department of Statistics and Operations Research, Universitat de València, Dr. Moliner 50, 46100 Burjassot, Spain
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